Lock City: Week 6 NFL Picks

Just to pre-curse this Lock City, we we have gone 12-3-1 the past three weeks in College only to give ALLLL back on Sundays.  To the point my own family (uncle) has taken the stance to bet opposite of my NFL picks.  Which makes me start to believe the books really do always come out on top.  If you believe otherwise you should probably just stop reading now.

NOW we are 4- 11 the past 3 weeks in the NFL….eeek, so I took special care on delivering you these gems.  Again, read at your own risk, but Im hot and right on this week!  Choose wisely uncle John….choose wisely.

NY Giants (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-1)

Look for this one to be a playoff style of game and for the running game and defense to play a major role making it a lower scoring game that falls under the total.  With the game taking that tone, Im taking the points as the Giants are playing decent football right now.

Miggles Pic – UNDER 47 and Giants +7

Oakland Raiders (1-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-0)

This is a lot tougher game than many would think as the Raiders are coming off of the bye, are well rested, and have had a chance to regroup with the personnel changes. Atlanta has been bruising it out and though they can make it look easy, but we all know nothing is easy in the NFL.  Any given Sunday and facts stated above, we are taking the points here.

Miggles Pick OVER 49 and Raiders +9.5

Detroit Lions (1-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)

Eagles dont turn it over today, those days are behind them as they lay it on Detroit.  Eagles D will play a big part in this game as Detroit cant run the ball and will lean heavily on their passing game.  Which plays into the Eagles hands as they can get away with just rushing four with great success.  I still do see this one going over.

Miggles Pick – OVER 47 and Eagles – 3.5

Minnesota Vikings (4-1) at Washington Redskins (2-3)

Minnesota for some reason still isnt getting much respect here.  Redskins are overrated and RGIII isnt at full strength.  I see this one as a gift and will be my strongest play of the day.

Miggles Pick – Minnesota -1

Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Houston Texans (5-0)

Green Bay is in a do or die circumstance here as they will fall out of Superbowl discussions if they slip to 2-4. Aaron Rodgers gives the Packers offense an edge but the loss of Jermichael Finley and Cedric Benson could be too much to overcome especially with the dynamic Texans offense going to town on the Packers secondary. Coming off a tough road loss and into another difficult road game doesn’t bode well for the Packers especially with the Texans looking to prove themselves against the league’s best.

Miggles Pick – Houston – 3.5

Lock City: NFL Week 5 Picks

Arizona Cardinals (4-0) at St. Louis Rams (2-2)

What a miserable game this is.  Its a Thursday nighter so I figured I’d put my two cents in.  Arizona basically has one player on their team and that’s Larry Fitzgerald.  St. Louis runs their offense through their kicker.  The under is set a little low, but I kinda like it.  My stronger play here is the Cards though.  They stay undefeated and cover.

Miggles Pick – Cards – 2.5

Atlanta Falcons (4-0) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

Skins gives up an avg 320 yards a game through the air, which bodes pretty well for the high flying falcons.  RGIII and the up and coming Robert Morris aren’t slouches either and I see this one being a shoot out for sure.  Each of these teams together have avg’d 56 points per game and I don’t see that trend stopping anytime soon.  OVER

Miggles Pick – OVER 50

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

Although the Chiefs are tough to play at home, their inability to hold on to the football and the Ravens incredible ability to cause turnovers makes this an easy one for me.  I see this line too low and Ravens cover easily.

Miggles Pick – Ravens -5

Cleveland Browns (0-4) at NY Giants (2-2)

The Browns are pretty bad Weeden is even worse.  That being said I think they fight in this one as they don’t want to drop to 0-5.  A wise person once told me, “the funny thing about betting the NFL, these are all professionals that were at some point drafted and sought after because of their talents.”  This creates the tremendous parody we have in the league today.  The Browns do lose this one, but I don’t think without a fight.

Miggles Pick – Browns +10

Denver Broncos (2-2) at New England Patriots (2-2)

The Pats D keeps Denver in this one and Peyton Manning is  tough to bet against to lose, but to cover 7 points I’ll take it even more and twice on Sundays.  Get it?  Forget it.

Miggles Pick Denver +7

Lock City: Thursday Night NFL Pick of the Week

15 – 11 – 2 on the season STILL IN THE GREEN!

Cleveland Browns (0-3) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

The Ravens have won 12 straight at home and I don’t see a scenario that keeps them from moving on to 13 this week. Cleveland sits near the bottom of the league rushing charts at just 87.3 per game and will not do any better against the Ravens. The Ravens have struggled defending the passing game this season, but have also faced three of the better passing teams in the league in Cincinnati, Philadelphia and New England. The Ravens are not a quick strike offense and tend to produce long drives spanning 8 or more plays. I see the Ravens focusing more on Ray Rice and the running game as they will not be forced to play catch up football against the young and inexperienced Browns. This doesn’t appear to be an exciting show for the NFL Network audience, but we will happily take a win at the betting counter with a low scoring contest. Under 43.5 points is the call here.

 

Miggles Pick – UNDER 43.5

Lock City: Week 3 NFL Picks

Miggles Season Record 10 – 8 – 2

 

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) at Washington Redskins (1-1)

I don’t like the line at the momet especially with the Redskins losing to the Rams and losing two of their best defenders in the process, but it is their home opener and RGIII and the Skins will be jacked up. As such, I like the total a lot more as these are two high flying offenses at the moment and with Cincinnati struggling defensively and the Skins without Orakpo and Carriker I think this one fly’s over 46.5.

Miggles Pick – OVER 49

 

Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at San Diego Chargers (2-0)

This should be a good one as both teams defend the run well and have QB’s who can get the ball in a hurry. The QB’s are close, Rivers maybe a better arm, Ryan less likely to take a bad chance and make a big mistake but the Falcons receivers are the better group and Turner the better option at running back and that should be the difference and the points make this an even better play.

Miggles Pick – Atlanta +3

 

Houston Texans (2-0) at Denver Broncos (1-1)

The Texans are the team to beat int e AFC and the Broncos don’t have enough to beat them so even as a small favorite in their second of back to back road games they are the choice here.

Miggles Pick – Houston -1.5

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-2)

The total in this one is set a little too low as today’s NFL is all about scoring and we should see some here as both of these teams have quick strike ability.

Miggles Pick – OVER 44 and Steelers – 3.5

 

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

Philly looked like the team they set out to be the whole second half last week.  They held Flacco to a 6 for 20 performance in the second half on the way to their second consecutive comeback.  I think the turnovers are over and we are gonna see a full four quarters from them this time and they win by a TD here.

Miggles Pick – Philly – 3

 

New England Patriots (1-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)

Im not too sold on the Pats D as of yet.  Holding the Cards to single digits at home doesnt sway me too much.  Ravens D is opportunistic and definitely makes things happen, but if they allow Gronk to get off like they did Celek last week, it could be a long game for them.  That being said, Im not too sure they were prepared for Celek, rest assured they have prepared for Gronk.  I think Ravens hold court at home and cover this spread easy.

 

Miggles Pick – Ravens – 3

 

WM